Idiots Write About Sports

Sure, I may not write much, but at least I’m willing to put my reputation on the line by making public, sure-to-be-wrong predictions about the coming baseball season. Can Jason say the same?

AL East 1. New York Yankees 2. Boston Red Sox 3. Toronto Blue Jays 4. Baltimore Orioles 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Yes, this is the same order that the teams have finished in since 1873. So I’m not really going out on a limb there. But how’s this for a bold prediction — between the Yankees and the Red Sox, one of those teams won’t make the playoffs.

Maybe it’s the contrarian in me. But everyone seems to assume that a Yanks-Sox ALCS is a foregone conclusion. (Bill Simmons writes: “Nineteen games against the Yanks. Nineteen. With another seven looming in October.” Really, Bill? Those ALCS games are already on the schedule, huh? Well, at least you don’t believe you can jinx teams.) And when that many people think something is going to happen, it usually doesn’t.

I could make an argument for why the Yankees might fall short, but it involves a lot of injuries and an all-out panic attack by George Steinbrenner. A Red Sox flop, while not likely, is much more feasible than a Yankee swoon.

The Sox hit a franchise record 238 home runs in 2003 and logged an all-time record slugging percentage of .491. That these are record levels implies that they had not been reached before; therefore, it is not entirely unreasonable to assume they will not be reached again, not immediately, anyhow. And if you look at Ortiz, Millar, Mueller, Nixon and Varitek, it’s not hard to see at least one of those guys fall well short of their 2003 performance.

Even with the addition of Curt Schilling, Boston’s fortunes are only as strong as Pedro Martinez’s arm, which should be making its traditional stop on the DL just in time for interleague play. Unlike Martinez’s theoretical injuries, Nomar Garciaparra is injured. Who knows if he comes back healthy and productive. And as great a stopper Keith Foulke is, I’m not convinced that a pitcher who records a lot of fly ball outs is a real good fit for Fenway Park.

All that said, the Sox will probably win 100 games, take the Series, and split the Nobel Peace Prize. Here’s hoping I can jinx a team.

AL Central 1. Kansas City Royals 2. Minnesota Twins 3. Chicago White Sox 4. Cleveland Indians 5. Detroit Tigers

The Royals look like the best of a mediocre lot. I like the additions of Gonzalez and Stairs. Minnesota will feel the loss of LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guadardo in the bullpen; the Twins also don’t have much in the rotation after Johann Santana’s turn. As for the White Sox, well, it’s too early to say that Ozzie Guillen is in over his head, but it’s looking like a long, miserable summer on the South Side. Frank Thomas would be well advised to invest in an English-to-Spanish curse words dictionary so that he can understand all the vile things his manager is muttering at him.

The Tigers will not be as bad as they were in 2003. They will still lose 100 games.

AL West.

1. Anaheim Angels 2. Oakland Athletics * 3. Seattle Mariners 4. Texas Rangers * — wildcard

Another reason that the inevitably of a Yankee-Sox ALCS seems far from certain: there are several very good teams in the AL West. Only uncertainty about Arthur Rhodes, fears that Mark Ellis’s injury is a sign of bad karma, and my unwillingness to be exposed as the blatant homer I am keep me from making the A’s my divisional pick. Oh, also there’s a fellow playing right field for Anaheim now who’s adequate with the bat.

The Mariners — and I think they should legally change their nickname to the Ancient Mariners — could really fall on their faces this year. They have a lot riding on guys in their late 30s and early 40s — Boone, Edgar, Moyer, Olerud — and that’s a recipe for a last place finish. Thank God, the Rangers are there to break the fall.

NL East 1. Philadelphia Phillies 2. Florida Marlins 3. Atlanta Braves 4. New York Mets 5. Montreal Expos

This pick is contingent upon the Phillies getting off to a bad start, firing Larry Bowa, hiring someone competent and riding the good vibes to a championship. If Bowa’s still managing in September, Phillies fans shouldn’t have to worry about saving up for playoff tickets.

I am wary of picking against the Braves — Phil’s Law of Predictions is that when someone wins multiple titles, you keep picking them until someone else proves otherwise. But I just don’t see how that rotation allows Atlanta to win its 100th consecutive NL East title.

What baseball has done to the Expos the past three years may be the biggest stain on Bud Selig’s resumé. And Bud Selig canceled a World Series once.

NL Central 1. Chicago Cubs 2. Houston Astros* 3. St. Louis Cardinals 4. Milwaukee Brewers 5. Pittsburgh Pirates 6. Cincinnati Reds

The last time the Cubs had consecutive winning seasons? 1967 through 1972. Or, in other words, not in my lifetime. Seems like the perfect time to break that particular streak.

Remember what I said about Larry Bowa’s continued employment affecting the Phillies’ chances? Same thing goes for the Astros and Jimy Williams.

The distance between the Cardinals in third place and the Brewers in fourth is roughly equivalent to the distance of my home here in Playa Del Rey and Mars.

NL West 1. San Francisco Giants 2. San Diego Padres 3. Arizona Diamondbacks 4. Los Angeles Dodgers 5. Colorado Rockies

Of all the idiotic picks I’ve made — the Red Sox missing the playoffs, the Cubs strining together consecutive winning seasons — I feel the least confident about this one. I’m assuming Brian Sabean makes some sort of move and that Leo Estrella’s appearances out of the ‘pen are kept to a bare minimum. I very nearly picked the Padres to win this division, but there’s just not enough pitching there.

AL Champs: Yankees NL Champs: Cubs World Series Champs: Yankees (C’mon, jinx — do your magic!)

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero NL MVP: Jim Thome AL Cy Young: Tim Hudson NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt AL Rookie: Bobby Crosby* NL Rookie: Kaz Matsui AL Manager: Ron Gardenhire NL Manager: Bruce Bochy

Managers Fired During the Year: Larry Bowa, Jimy Williams, Bob Melvin, Bob Brenly

Managers Fired After the Year So Their Cheapskate Teams Don’t Have to Pay Them Off: Lloyd McClendon, Jim Tracy