Idiots Write About Sports

There’s been a lot of blather about “productive outs” lately, thanks, in large part, to an article by ESPN’s Buster Olney, who offers up a generally positive appraisal of the stat cooked up by Elias Sports Bureau. The idea is a) if the first out of any inning advances a basrunner; b) a pitcher sacrifices with one out; or c) the second out of an inning scores a baserunner, what you’ve got there is a productive out. The idea behind the stats seems to be a way to quantify the effectiveness of “small ball” while renouncing Bill James, Billy Beane and all their false teachings. (Indeed, Olney’s list of tems with the lowest rate of productive outs — productive outs divided by total number of outs — includes the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletcis. Of course, the top three are the Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Pittsburgh Pirates, raising the question of which three teams would you rather be, but that’s neither here nor there.)

David Pinto does an excellent job of explaining on the folly of the productive outs stat. That point was further driven home Saturday, as I watched the Mariner-Tiger game through the courtesy of MLB Extra Innings.

Here’s the situation: top of the eighth, nobody out, Detroit up 4-0. Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman has just given up a single to Carlos Guillen and a run-scoring double to John Olerud. It’s now 4-1 Tigers, Bonderman is running on fumes, and Dan Wilson, the No. 8 hitter, is at the plate. Wilson promptly grounds out to second, advancing Olerud to third.

The Tigers announcers note that some teams — we’re looking in your direction, thrice-damned Athletcis — would be hesitant to give up an out in that situation, but that by advancing the runner, the Mariners put themselves into a position to cut the Tiger lead in half. Indeed, after a Rich Aurilia strikeout, Ichiro Suzuki plated Olerud on an infield hit. The productive out has done its job, even after reliever Danny Patterson strikes out Edgar Martinez to end the inning.

But here’s the thing — Wilson’s “productive” out arguably cost the Mariners the game. When he came to the plate, the Mariners had nobody out, a tiring opposing pitcher, the top of the order lurking in the hole, and six outs remaining to score three runs. After Wilson’s ground-out, the Mariners had a runner on third but now only five outs to close a three-run gap. Even after scoring that run, Seattle was still down by two. And by giving up an out, they made it that much easier for Detroit to get out of the inning with the lead intact.

This will be the second time in less than a week that I’ve quoted Earl Weaver, but his old axiom seems to be fitting for this particular game:

If you play for one run, that’s all you’re going to get.

The Mariners played for a run, and they got it. Unfortunately, they needed three runs. Then again, why Seattle may have lost the game, Mariner fans can take comfort in the fact that the team improved its productive-out percentage. And really, isn’t that why we play the game?