Idiots Write About Sports

There seems to a general consensus among the punditry class that the Atlanta Braves face a formidable challenge today, what with Roger Clemens taking the mound, and throughout this series, as Clemens will most likely pitch in Game 5 (if necessary). Dan Wetzel sums up this general line of reasoning:

Yet here we are. Houston not only is the National League wild-card entrant – the Astros are the wild card of these entire playoffs. Is there a scarier team to face in a short, five-game division series?

Wednesday in Atlanta, the Astros will trot out Clemens (18-4, 2.98 ERA). Thursday it will be Roy Oswalt (20-10, 3.49). Then they go back to Minute Maid Park where they have merely won 18 consecutive games.

And Clemens would be available for Game Five, if necessary.

Which is nice, in theory. But it ignores the question: since when did Roger Clemens become a lead-pipe lock as a playoff pitcher?

This is not to question Roger Clemens’ Hall of Fame credentials or even take issue with his designation as the best pitcher since World War II. Rather, I would merely point out that whatever reputation as a dominating pitcher he enjoys has little to do with his post-season accomplishments.

Check out his plyaoff stats at Baseball-Reference.com. In 26 post-season games, he’s 8-6 — a winning record, sure, but a bit of a come-down from his regular-season winning percentage. (That win total has also been fluffed up after five post-seasons with the Yankees.) More significantly, how many times can you recall Roger Clemens coming up big in a post-season start? Here’s my list:

* His shutdown of Seattle in the 2000 ALCS;
* His Game Two start in the 2000 Series against the Mets, where The Bat Incident overshadowed just how well he ptiched;
* His Game Seven start in 2001 against the Diamondbacks (a game the Yankees lost, but not because of anything Clemens did);
* Last year’s ALDS start against the Twins; and
* His “final” start against the Marlins last year.

Maybe I’m leaving one or two starts out, although I think my inclusion of the Twins game is more than generous.

All right, now how many times has he flopped in the post-season? Again, here’s my list:

* Game Seven of last year’s ALCS, in which he was slapped around by the Sox (people forget that, thanks to Grady Little and Aaron Boone);
* The 2002 ALDS, in which the Angels dinged him for four runs in 5 2/3 innings (and only a meltdown by the Anaheim bullpen saved this game for the Yanks);
* The 2000 ALDS, in which he lost both of his starts to Oakland, including a Game Four pasting the forced New York to fly back to Oakland for the deciding game;
* The doomed return to Boston in the 1999 ALCS, featuring a pitching line of 2IP, 5ER; and
* Game Four of the 1990 ALCS (big-game pitchers don’t get ejected by umpires, Roger).

So that’s as many high-profile failures as high-profile successes. I’m sure the Atlanta Braves aren’t putting out the welcome mat at the prospect of having to face Roger Clemens twice in a five-game series, but I don’t think they’re sweating bullets at the thought either.

(I began writing this piece before the first pitch of today’s playoff game, so it was in no way influenced by anything Clemens does or doesn’t do at Turner Field this afternoon. Just thought I’d make that clear, in case someone thought I’d try and pull a Gammons.)

(Update: Clemens gets the win, but looking at the box score, it seems like that had more to do with Houston’s bats than the Rocket’s arm. Six hits and six walks in seven innings is not exactly what you’d call a shutdown performance. So I stand by my original assertion — there are are a couple of pitchers in this post-season (Schilling, Santana) who you just don’t want to face; Roger Clemens ain’t one of them.)

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