Idiots Write About Sports

This thread here, where Steve-O takes me to school on the finer points of sports books and vigs, reminded me that I still have in my position a voucher for a $10 bet I made at the Mirage Hotel & Casino last February that the A’s would win the 2004 World Series. Since the Commissioner’s Office has yet to respond to my official request to nullify the results of the 2004 postseason and declare the A’s champions based on their charm and good manners, I suppose I can give up the dream of collecting $120 of the MGM Mirage Corporation’s money.

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time for the ceremonial burning of Phil’s Ill-Considered Wagers on Oakland, 2004 edition:

Let’s torch this mother…

Easy come, easy go…

I will, of course, be stealing off to the desert in the coming days, at which time I plan on making my 2005 edition of the Ill-Considered Wager on Oakland. I was also planning on making another bet, this one with my head instead of my heart, on a team that would be a good surprise pick to win a pennant in 2005.

That excludes the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels, of course, who will be assigned ridiculously unprofitable odds on merit. The Cardinals and Braves also figure to offer small payoffs, thanks mostly to reputation and the gambler’s belief that past performance does, in fact, ensure future results. The AL Central and NL West are too volatile. I don’t see the Rangers or Mariners sneaking up on anyone next year. For a while, I was considering getting a sawbuck down on the Phillies, using the logic that cutting bait on Larry Bowa should be good for at least some payoff. But the more I think about it, the more I’ve come to believe that the best bet for a surprise pennant winner in 2005 may well be… the Oakland Athletics.

Think about it. The A’s didn’t make the playoffs last year, so that figures to give them pretty attractive odds from a betting standpoint. They’re in a tough league and a tough division so we’re probably looking at something like a 10-to-1 payoff, even using a conservative estimate. But Oakland still has the personnel to contend — at least until Billy Beane trades Hudson, Mulder and Zito for three pitching prospects, a utility infielder and a trunk full of fungo bats in an eight-team, three-league deal. Yup, as it stands now, I’m fairly confident that this year’s Ill-Considered Wager on Oakland has a good chance of actually paying off.

At least, that’s what I tell myself before the realization sinks in that trading for Keith Ginter while our divisional rivals pursue A-list free agents is what passes for a primo deal ‘round these parts.

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