Idiots Write About Sports

Just noticed we’re a week into the 2005 season, and I hadn’t made my division race predictions known to a large and indifferent public. And that seems about right, seeing as how on top of things we are around here. So what better time to be wrong in public than at 3:15 in the morning when you can’t sleep because the cat is scratching and biting and meowing at the top of his lungs, presumably because he just realized he was named after a guy who can’t last four innings against Tampa Bay.

For a refresher course, you can peruse last season’s picks where I successfully nailed three of the six playoff teams. (And told you Kansas City was winning the AL Central. I’m doing this why again?) I also correctly predicted the AL MVP and the AL Rookie of the Year, which I guess proves that thing they say about broken clocks.

Anyhow, here’s this year’s rundown, with playoff teams listed in italics.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

So last fall, after taking the Cardinals to win the World Series in a stirring seven-game affair, a Red Sox fan posted a comment to the effect that I was a moron to pick against his team. That he only bothered to do so a month-and-a-half after Doug Mientkiewicz slunk off with the Series-clinching baseball makes his mockery only slightly less effective. Perhaps it took him that long after the Series to sober up.

So, rather than ensure Boston’s continued success by constantly picking against them, I’m picking the Sox to finally best the Yankees for the division title. Now watch them go 78-84. How you like them apples, paly?

Ah, it’s more than just a spite pick. I think Boston’s aging lineup and creaky rotation is slightly deeper and better than New York’s aging lineup and creeky rotation. A day of reckoning is coming for the Bronx Bombers and their depleted farm system, but it will not be this year — the Yankees win the wildcard.

The Orioles have been the trendy pick to step into contention, should the Sox or the Yankees take the pipe. It makes one wonder if the people making that trendy pick have actually noticed who’s pitching in Baltimore. It says here the Blue Jays will be dramatically better than last year and maybe even sneak past the Orioles to win the prestigious title of Best of the No-Chance-in-Hell Trio.

AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

I picked against the Twins last year and regretted it from the moment I did it. It’s a solid lineup with two outstanding pitchers, so why make the same mistake twice? Cleveland is not quite ready to contend, the Tigers are closer than you might think, and no one ever went broke betting against an organization where Kenny Williams is calling the shots. As for Kansas City, well, we’ll always have that time I picked you to win the division in 2004, fellas.

AL West
1. Anaheim Angels of the Inland Empire
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Settle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers

It is frightening to me, as an A’s fan, how good the Angels should be if their offense performs the way I think it should. Put it this way: I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the A’s approach last year’s win total… unfortunately, Anaheim is going to win about 100 games when all is said and done.

I’ll have you know I warned about the Mariners’ age-related collapse in this very space last year… not enough to pick them to finish last, but I’m so rarely dead-on in my analysis, I’d appreciate it if you gave me that one. Texas is a dead-solid lock to drop off the face of the earth this year, as the bullpen regresses and the starting pitching does what starting pitching in Arlington usually does.

NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Do not pick against the Braves. Do not pick against the Braves. Do not pick against the Braves. Do not…

Sorry. Just reminding myself of the First Rule of Prognostication: keep picking the team that wins year after year until they do otherwise.

And yet, I just can’t do it this year, after looking at some of the warm bodies now occupying the outfield at Turner Field. I mean, when Raul Mondesi is the answer, you really should be asking yourself different questions.

So why the Phillies? Well, for starters, everyone talking about the Marlins great lineup seems to forget that it still includes Juan Encarnacion and one of the dozen Alex Gonzalezes playing in the majors these days. And I just don’t see the Mets’ free-agent acquisitions doing enough to overcome the players remaining on Fred Wilpon’s payroll. At least, the Washington Nationals will play all 81 home games in one place this year… that’s progress.

Look, I like the Phillies lineup, and I don’t think the pitching staff is as bad as the papers would have you believe. Plus, I just see this team finally putting it together now that the players have been freed from the cruel yolk of Larry Bowa. If that seems like an argument that flies in the face of reasoned baseball analysis, it’s worth noting that Rob Neyer was saying much the same thing on ESPNnews right before the season started, and he’s much smarter than I am.

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cubs seem to be the best choice in a division in which all the contending teams are much worse off than they were a year ago. In the Cubs’ case, the loss of Sammy Sosa’s offensive contributions should be offset by the absence of his offensive presence. Plus, they have the best pitching staff, assuming that Prior and Wood get healthy — a Kirstie Alley-sized assumption if ever there was one.

I think the Cardinals downgraded at shortstop and got a career ‘04 from their second baseman that Mark Grudzielanek is unlikely to replicate. 2004 also saw Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds turn in MVP-caliber years; how likely is it that they’ll repeat the feat again this season? And I love watching Mark Mulder pitch, but watching him stuggle through the second half last year has me convinced that there is something horribly wrong with him. I hope that I’m mistaken.

And after spending a whole paragraph pointing out the Cardinals’ many failings, I’m still picking them to win the wildcard. I am just not very good at this.

The Brewers’ predicted third-place finish is as much an endorsement of their young players — get here soon, Richie Weeks — as it is a dismissal of Houston’s chances now that Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent have gone elsewhere, Lance Berkman has taken up flag football, and Jeff Bagwell continues to age in dog years. Most people have the Reds in that third-place slot, but that assumes an ambulatory Ken Griffey, and I’ve already made the Kirstie Alley joke.

I’m almost certain Pittsburgh no longer fields a team.

NL West

1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

Another winner-by-default division. The Padres have enough pitching — at least for their cavernous home park — to compensate for their other shortcomings. The Dodgers have too many holes, the Giants have too many old men, and the Diamondbacks have too much ground to make up from last year’s dismal record to make me feel good about picking any one of them.

Postseason Predictions

In the AL, the Angels advance when the Yankees decline to accept their wildcard invitation to the postseason. (“Division championships are the only acceptable result for this club,” says a defiant George Steinbrenner as he pushes Brian Cashman of the Queensboro Bridge.) Minnesota’s pitching is too much for Boston. And in the ALCS, Minnesota gains a measure of revenge for the 2002 playoffs, while Rex Hudler sobs openly over the air.

In the NL, I have the Cardinals knocking off the Phillies (post-Bowa bliss only takes you so far) and the Cubs getting by the Padres (Leon Durham, I absolve you). The Cubs win the NLCS, thus assuring the end of humanity.

Or not, as the Twins win the Series in six games on the backs of Johan Santana and Brad Radke.

Award Winners

AL MVP: In this era of Steroids Hysteria, I can see the writers doing something like giving the award to Derek Jeter for “playing the game the right way.” But if any Yankee is going to win, it’s most likely to be A-Rod. Still, the pick here is for Vlad to repeat.

AL Cy Young: Speaking of repeats, I’d like to order another round of Santana please.

AL Rookie of the Year: I pick Bobby Crosby to rep… no, wait, I can’t do that. OK, then, Jeremy Reed of Seattle.

AL Manager of the Year: Impossible to pick before the season starts because the award usually goes to whoever skippers the team that defies expectations. I’m going to say Ron Gardenhire because all he does is win division titles.

NL MVP: Barry Bonds’ forced absence gives writers all the cover they need to do what they’ve wanted to do for three years: give the award to someone else. Albert Pujols is someone else.

NL Cy Young: I’m going to keep picking you, Tim Hudson, until you win the award or your arm falls off.

NL Rookie of the Year: I have no earthly idea. Richie Weeks if he gets called up by May. Otherwise, I’ll pull a name out of the hat. “Garrett Atkins,” it says.

NL Manager of the Year: Charlie Manuel, thank you for not yelling at your players.

Aw, jeez, Phil. Why couldn't you have put the NL West first, so I could have seen you'd ranked the Padres tops early on and safely ignored the rest of the article?

The Angels offense, good? They ditch two of their top hitters and replace them with an untested rookie and an older guy who's questionable to hit 20 home runs? And with Anderson still sufficiently injured by arthritis that the Angels took no chances on leaving him in center? Uh... this is a club with a badly overrated offense. I still think the A's will take the division.

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