Idiots Write About Sports

Since this keeps coming up, I thought I’d try to summarize what Cal’s bowl possibilities are. Basically, it all hinges on three things: this week’s ASU-Arizona game, the USC-UCLA game, and the BCS selection system. Did you feel a chill just then?
This year it’s Oregon — 10-1 Oregon, with their only loss to undefeated top-ranked USC — that’s most likely going to be screwed by the BCS. Unlike last year, there’s not going to be a team that slides into a mandatory BCS selection spot without being a league champion, which was where Cal and Texas were last year before and after Mack Brown lobbied the poll voters. Instead, the BCS bowls will basically draft teams. Oregon might end up at the Fiesta Bowl (wouldn’t Oregon-Penn State be a good match-up?), but they also might end up without a chair when the music stops.
Now, let’s assume the USC beats UCLA. In that case:
If ASU wins and Oregon is screwed by the BCS, the Ducks go to the Holiday Bowl, with UCLA going to the Sun Bowl. Next up in the Pac-10 pecking order is the Insight Bowl. But Cal and ASU now both have 4-4 conference marks, so the Phoenix-based Insight goes with the local Sun Devils. That leaves the Las Vegas Bowl for Cal, although one article claims that Cal might fall to the Emerald Bowl because the Las Vegas Bowl conflicts with Cal’s final exams. I don’t buy it.
If ASU wins and Oregon goes to a BCS Bowl, UCLA gets the Holiday Bowl, and Cal and ASU vie for slots in the Sun Bowl and Insight Bowl — it would depend on which team the Sun Bowl would prefer. The Chronicle’s Jake Curtis suggested today that most likely Cal would be the choice. Curtis told me in an e-mail that Cal’s superior overall record (7-4 versus 6-5 for ASU) would probably push the Sun Bowlers in Cal’s direction, and Phil points out that the Sun Devils played in their half-namesake bowl last year. So that wraps it up — if this scenario plays out, Cal’s going to El Paso. Just like they told us in August.
If ASU loses to Arizona, the Sun Devils are not bowl eligible — talk about a long, hard fall! If Oregon gets screwed by the BCS as well, it’s Oregon to the Holiday Bowl, UCLA to the Sun Bowl, and the Bears go to the Insight Bowl.
If ASU loses to Arizona and Oregon gets a BCS berth, Cal goes to the Sun Bowl.
The possibilities if UCLA beats USC make my head hurt. Presumably USC wouldn’t make the national title game (the game that ruined the Rose Bowl) in that case. I would imagine that Oregon — with its hurt QB and a loss to the no-longer-undefeated Trojans) would be out of the BCS picture, but UCLA might sneak in at 10-1 with a win over USC. If UCLA gets into the BCS, all the above Oregon-gets-in scenarios apply — just swap the names “UCLA” and “Oregon.” It basically has no effect on Cal. And I can’t see a scenario by which three Pac-10 teams — all with one-loss records — would make the BCS. I think that’s impossible.
By the way, it’s a sad time to be a Pac-10 fan. If ASU loses and Stanford loses to Notre Dame, the conference will only have four teams that are bowl eligible: USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Cal. Ouch.