Idiots Write About Sports

Since this keeps coming up, I thought I’d try to summarize what Cal’s bowl possibilities are. Basically, it all hinges on three things: this week’s ASU-Arizona game, the USC-UCLA game, and the BCS selection system. Did you feel a chill just then?

This year it’s Oregon — 10-1 Oregon, with their only loss to undefeated top-ranked USC — that’s most likely going to be screwed by the BCS. Unlike last year, there’s not going to be a team that slides into a mandatory BCS selection spot without being a league champion, which was where Cal and Texas were last year before and after Mack Brown lobbied the poll voters. Instead, the BCS bowls will basically draft teams. Oregon might end up at the Fiesta Bowl (wouldn’t Oregon-Penn State be a good match-up?), but they also might end up without a chair when the music stops.

Now, let’s assume the USC beats UCLA. In that case:

If ASU wins and Oregon is screwed by the BCS, the Ducks go to the Holiday Bowl, with UCLA going to the Sun Bowl. Next up in the Pac-10 pecking order is the Insight Bowl. But Cal and ASU now both have 4-4 conference marks, so the Phoenix-based Insight goes with the local Sun Devils. That leaves the Las Vegas Bowl for Cal, although one article claims that Cal might fall to the Emerald Bowl because the Las Vegas Bowl conflicts with Cal’s final exams. I don’t buy it.

If ASU wins and Oregon goes to a BCS Bowl, UCLA gets the Holiday Bowl, and Cal and ASU vie for slots in the Sun Bowl and Insight Bowl — it would depend on which team the Sun Bowl would prefer. The Chronicle’s Jake Curtis suggested today that most likely Cal would be the choice. Curtis told me in an e-mail that Cal’s superior overall record (7-4 versus 6-5 for ASU) would probably push the Sun Bowlers in Cal’s direction, and Phil points out that the Sun Devils played in their half-namesake bowl last year. So that wraps it up — if this scenario plays out, Cal’s going to El Paso. Just like they told us in August.

If ASU loses to Arizona, the Sun Devils are not bowl eligible — talk about a long, hard fall! If Oregon gets screwed by the BCS as well, it’s Oregon to the Holiday Bowl, UCLA to the Sun Bowl, and the Bears go to the Insight Bowl.

If ASU loses to Arizona and Oregon gets a BCS berth, Cal goes to the Sun Bowl.

The possibilities if UCLA beats USC make my head hurt. Presumably USC wouldn’t make the national title game (the game that ruined the Rose Bowl) in that case. I would imagine that Oregon — with its hurt QB and a loss to the no-longer-undefeated Trojans) would be out of the BCS picture, but UCLA might sneak in at 10-1 with a win over USC. If UCLA gets into the BCS, all the above Oregon-gets-in scenarios apply — just swap the names “UCLA” and “Oregon.” It basically has no effect on Cal. And I can’t see a scenario by which three Pac-10 teams — all with one-loss records — would make the BCS. I think that’s impossible.

By the way, it’s a sad time to be a Pac-10 fan. If ASU loses and Stanford loses to Notre Dame, the conference will only have four teams that are bowl eligible: USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Cal. Ouch.

"The Chronicle’s Jake Curtis suggested today that most likely Cal would be the choice. I e-mailed Curtis to ask him why, and he responded that Cal’s superior overall record (7-4 versus 6-5 for ASU) would probably push the Sun Bowlers in Cal’s direction."

Also, Arizona State played in the Sun Bowl last year, and bowl organizers tend to like having different teams play in consecutive years, so that there's not the travel fatigue among suck... er... boosters.

I mean, would you be inclined to make a trek to El Paso two years in a row?

wow, I didn't know that. Updating now...

I'm not inclined to go to El Paso once, let alone twice.

I think it is safe to assume that Oregon will get the shaft and not make a BCS bowl. I also think it is safe to assume that a UCLA upset doesn't change a thing for Cal because there is no way two teams make the BCS under that scenario either. So, it all comes down to whether ASU can beat Arizona for either the Insight (ASU loses) or Las Vegas (ASU wins).

My gut says Arizona wins that game, even though it is on the road.

Another thought just occured to me. If the bowls can pick whoever they want as long as their Pac-10 records are tied, we could THEORETICALLY end up in the Nut Bowl (Emerald). If both Stanford and ASU win next week, we'll all be 4-4 in the Pac-10. In theory, Insight and Las Vegas could pick ASU and Stanford, leaving Cal for the Nut Bowl.

Although only a theoretically (as no one expects Stanford to upset Notre Dame), if they did upset Notre Dame one could see how a bowl might (keep word) be tempted to pick them over Cal despite Saturday's Big Game result.

My understanding is that the bowls can't just pick any old team -- that they have to honor Pac-10 tiebreakers. But Cal and ASU didn't play each other, so they're considered to be completely tied and therefore it's "bowl committee's choice."

Cal beat Stanford, so Cal gets a leg up on Stanford. (And Stanford beat ASU, so I guess Stanford would get a leg up on them if they were bowl eligible.)

Yeesh.

Also, apparently Cal's 7-4 record is going to be pretty shiny when compared to 6-5s from ASU and Stanford should they both win.

I wouldn't cry if Cal played in San Francisco, but I don't think it's gonna happen.

Posted by Jason at November 21, 2005 04:10 PM

"I'm not inclined to go to El Paso once, let alone twice."

As a long-time Texas resident, I have to say: El Paso isn't that bad.

Now, Lubbock, on the other hand...

By the way, you're right, Ken - according to the Oakland Trib there are no tiebreakers at all when it comes to bowl selections. If Stanford and ASU both won and Oregon didn't get into the BCS, Cal could indeed potentially fall to the Emerald Bowl. (Although I suspect that 7-4 Cal would not be stiffed for two 6-5 schools.)

Posted by Jason at November 22, 2005 02:19 PM

Just remember: with USC surviving against Fresno St. (Instant Classic in my opinion, by the way), the Whammy is still in play.

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